---
name: forecast-cash-flow
category: money
description: Build a short-term cash-flow forecast from real balances, dated inflows, obligations, and uncertainty, then test conservative scenarios and define review triggers. Use when a person or small business asks whether cash will cover upcoming expenses, needs a runway view, or must plan around irregular income.
---

# forecast-cash-flow

Make timing visible. A cash forecast is not a profit statement and not a promise; it is a dated view of
money expected to enter and leave, with assumptions explicit enough to revise.

## Inputs

- Choose the person or business, accounts in scope, forecast horizon, currency, and review cadence.
- Gather current cleared balances, receivables, bills, payroll, debt, taxes, subscriptions, and known one-offs.
- Identify who may view the forecast and keep financial records in a private file they control.

## Procedure

1. Reconcile the opening cash balance to current account records. Exclude credit limits from cash.
2. List inflows by expected receipt date, amount, source, confidence, and evidence. Distinguish contracted,
   probable, tentative, and hoped-for money.
3. List outflows by due date, amount, obligation, flexibility, owner, and consequence of delay.
4. Separate fixed, variable, discretionary, tax, debt, and one-time items so response options remain visible.
5. Build a weekly forecast: opening cash plus inflows minus outflows equals closing cash. Carry closing cash
   into the next period.
6. Create base, conservative, and stress scenarios by changing dates and amounts for uncertain items.
   Preserve the same obligations across scenarios.
7. Mark the minimum cash point, weeks below the chosen reserve, and the earliest date a shortfall appears.
8. Identify reversible responses in decision order: collect confirmed receivables, move optional spending,
   renegotiate timing, reduce commitments, or seek qualified financial advice.
9. Set triggers for action, such as a payment slipping, a balance crossing the reserve, or a new obligation.
10. Reconcile actuals at each review, explain variance by timing versus amount, and roll the horizon forward.

## Boundaries

Do not fabricate income, ignore taxes or debt, or present uncertain receipts as guaranteed. Never move
money, borrow, invest, cancel obligations, or send collection messages without explicit authorization.
For insolvency, regulated advice, or material tax questions, involve a qualified professional.

## Done

- The opening balance reconciles to source records and every material inflow and outflow has a date and evidence
- Base, conservative, and stress scenarios show the minimum cash point and earliest shortfall
- An assumptions and variance log distinguishes timing changes, amount changes, and new information
- Review cadence, reserve threshold, action triggers, owner, and next update date are recorded

Then use budget-basics for recurring personal spending or invoice-and-get-paid for overdue business receivables.